Even in Canada's most expensive cities, the country's luxury real estate market isn't cooling down as we head into the fall. The spring of 2024 is seeing growth in high-end property sales across Canada, a trend reported earlier this year by the most recent Royal LePage® Carriage Trade® Luxury Market Report. The first eight months of the year brought increases in almost all cities, save for Vancouver, Toronto, and Halifax which each saw small declines.

So, what does this mean for the luxury market and buyers & sellers in general?

Steady Sales, Reduced Fluctuations

Luxury real estate typically offers more stability compared to the broader market, where price fluctuations are more common. High-end buyers often take their time selecting a home, and sellers are rarely in a hurry to drop their asking prices. This year, cities like Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Calgary have seen the largest gains, driven by strong local interest and buyers from other provinces.

Meanwhile, cities like Toronto experienced a slower start to the year, partly due to the introduction of a municipal land transfer tax in January. However, activity is expected to rise in the fall. Despite this, luxury properties in Toronto continue to be highly sought after, particularly those with convenient access to the city's top amenities like restaurants, parks, and public transit.

Market Drivers

Luxury homebuyers have distinct preferences. They typically seek more than just a property—they’re after specific features such as prime locations or custom-built homes. In certain regions, move-in-ready, fully renovated homes are the most in-demand, while in others, buyers are prepared to navigate rising construction costs to create their ideal living space.

Another key factor fueling the luxury market is economic confidence. High-end buyers are generally less influenced by interest rate changes, as many do not rely on large mortgages. Some make substantial down payments or buy properties outright with cash. Their decisions are typically based on long-term market stability, and currently, they remain optimistic about Canada’s real estate market.

Foreign Buyer Ban: Minimal Impact

The federal government's foreign buyer ban, introduced in 2023 and extended until 2027, was intended to make housing more accessible for Canadians. However, it hasn't significantly affected the luxury market. The majority of high-end buyers are Canadians, and the broader issue in real estate continues to be a lack of available properties, not just within the luxury segment.

What to Expect This Fall?

Looking ahead, the luxury market is expected to stay active. Cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Quebec City are predicted to experience continued growth. While markets in Toronto and Vancouver were slower earlier this year, they are likely to gain momentum as interest rates stabilize and economic confidence grows.

Whether you’re looking for a ready-to-move-in home or planning to design your own dream property, luxury real estate remains a sound investment. Buyers in this segment know what they want and are willing to wait, so demand is expected to remain strong.

Toronto’s Luxury Real Estate Market in 2024

In the first eight months of 2024, Toronto’s luxury home prices saw a modest rise of 3.9%, bringing the median price to $5.82 million, even as sales dipped by 5%. The minimum entry point for a luxury home in the city currently stands at $4.75 million.

“Toronto’s luxury market had a soft start to the year as the introduction of the updated municipal land transfer tax came into effect on January 1st. The amended tax saw graduated increases on properties valued over $3,000,000, starting at 3.5 percent and moving upwards. This led to a slower-than-normal spring market, which caused our inventory of available homes for sale to increase,” said Gillian Oxley, sales representative, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Oxley Real Estate. “However, the interesting element of the spring market was the many sellers who did not pull their listings off of the MLS when activity softened. Instead, many sellers chose to keep their homes listed, pushing up the average days on the market.”

Luxury properties in Toronto generally feature 4+ bedrooms, and 5+ bathrooms, and span at least 2,300 square feet. Buyers are patient, waiting for the right deal, although prime areas near transit, dining, and parks remain in high demand.

Oxley anticipates a stronger market in the fall, with further improvement expected in the spring as interest rates ease and buyer confidence returns.

2024 Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Market Report – Data Chart: rlp.ca/2024-Luxury-Market-Report-Chart

Want to stay updated on Canada’s luxury real estate market? Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest trends, market insights, and tips on navigating the luxury property market. Keep posted as the fall market unfolds.

Source: https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/news/luxury-landscape-brisk-activity-expected-this-fall-across-canadas-high-end-real-estate-markets/#_ftn1

In line with the recent TRREB market watch report, home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dropped in August 2024 compared to the previous year. However, there was a modest rise in new listings. Despite the ample supply of homes on the market, average prices only saw a slight decline from August 2023.

As per the recent report, 5.3% or equivalent to 4,975 home sales drop from August 2023. New listings reached 12,547, up by 1.5% from last year. Seasonally, sales increased slightly compared to July, while new listings dropped a bit.

Furthermore, the MLS® Home Price Index dropped by 4.6% compared to last year, and the average home price in August 2024 was $1,074,425, just 0.8% lower than in August 2023. The smaller drop in the average price is because more detached homes were sold this year. Compared to July, the average price also went down a little bit.

Explore the full Market Watch report for more information:

Commercial Charts

In Q1 2024, TRREB Commercial Network Members reported leasing 4,985,729 square feet of space across industrial, commercial/retail, and office sectors. This was a drop from Q1 2023.

The average lease rates per square foot rose in the industrial and office sectors: industrial rates increased to $16.90 (from $15.55 in Q1 2023) and office rates jumped to $20.09 (from $16.15). However, retail lease rates dipped slightly to $29.08 (down from $30.63).

Commercial property sales were up in Q1 2024 with 259 transactions compared to 238 in Q1 2023. Industrial sales rose to 92, retail sales to 113, and office sales slightly increased to 54.

Keep in mind, these price changes can be influenced by shifts in market conditions and the type of properties being leased. Here's a quick summary in chart form:

Want monthly market insights delivered straight to your inbox? Subscribe to our newsletter and stay connected with the latest GTA real estate updates! Be part of our growing community.

The GTA housing market took a bit of a breather in August. Home sales dropped by 5.3% compared to last year, with 4,975 homes sold, down from 5,251 same time last year. New listings went up up, with 12,547 homes added to the market, and currently 22,653 active listings. So, if you’re looking to buy, there are ample options.

Prices didn’t change much. The average home price was down by just 0.8%, bringing it to $1,074,425. The MLS® Home Price Index dropped a bit more, down 4.6%, showing that home prices are cooling off, but slowly.

There’s some welcome news for buyers, On September 4, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, which is going to help make carrying costs more affordable. . As mortgage rates continue to fall, we expect to see more people buying homes—especially condos—over the next year or two.

TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst, Jason Mercer, said “As borrowing costs trend lower, home buyer will initially benefit from both lower monthly mortgage payments and lower home prices. Even as demand picks up, especially in 2025 it will take time for inventory of listing to be absorbed…. And this will help keep price growth moderate, at least in the initial phases of recovery”

Looking ahead, TRREB’s CEO, John DiMichele, reminded that we need to maintain a sustained focus of boasting home construction, especially relating to the right mix of homes to meet consumers needs meet demand and keep them affordable.

Want to stay in the know about the GTA housing market? Subscribe to our newsletter for regular updates, tips, and insights!

View the detailed August report here.

As anticipated, The Bank of Canada recently announced a third consecutive reduction to its target overnight lending rate, bringing it down to 4.25%, with the Bank Rate at 4.25% and the deposit rate matching the overnight target at 4.25%. Alongside this rate cut, the Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization, which aims to reduce the excess reserves built up during past economic interventions. This move is part of a broader effort to stabilize the Canadian economy as global financial conditions shift.

Target for the overnight rate (Past 5 Years)

This chart highlights the changes in the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate over the past five years, providing a visual understanding of the central bank’s approach in response to evolving economic conditions.

Globally, the economy grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, with stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. and steady improvement in Europe. China’s growth lagged due to weak demand. Financial conditions have eased, and the Canadian dollar has slightly appreciated. In Canada, the economy grew by 2.1%, driven by government spending and business investment, though recent data shows a slowdown. Inflation has eased to 2.5%, with housing costs still the main driver, though they are starting to decline.

In response, the Bank reduced the interest rate by 0.25% and will continue monitoring trends to ensure price stability for Canadians.

The next overnight rate target announcement is set for October 23, 2024. On the same day, the Bank will release its full economic and inflation outlook, highlighting key risks and projections in the MPR. Stay informed—subscribe to our newsletter for updates.