If you’ve ever wondered why your mortgage payments change, or why savings account rates sometimes feel like a rollercoaster rid chances are, it all ties back to one powerful lever in Canada’s economy: the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate.

What Exactly Is the Overnight Lending Rate?

Let’s start simple.

The overnight lending rate is the interest rate at which big Canadian banks lend money to each other for a single day literally “overnight.” They do this to keep their daily balances in check and meet government requirements.

But here’s the catch: this short-term rate isn’t just a back-office banker thing. It’s the starting point for many interest rates you encounter every day—like:

• Your variable mortgage rate

• Interest on lines of credit

• Business loans

• Even the rate you earn on savings accounts or GICs

When the Bank of Canada adjusts this rate, it sets off a chain reaction across the entire financial system.

Why Does the Bank of Canada Change the Rate?

The short answer? To keep the economy stable and inflation under control.

The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation around 2%. If prices are rising too fast (think: groceries getting more expensive every week), they’ll increase the rate to cool things down. If the economy is too slow, they’ll lower the rate to encourage spending and investment.

Here’s how that plays out:

How Does the Overnight Rate Actually Work?

The Bank of Canada doesn’t force the market to follow its lead. Instead, it sets a target rate and works within a range (called the operating band). Let’s say the target is 2.75% then the actual rate banks charge each other usually stays between 2.5% and 3.0%.

To keep things on track, the Bank uses something called open market operations, buying and selling government bonds to manage how much money is floating around.

This may sound technical, but think of it like adjusting the thermostat in your home. Too hot? Turn it down. Too cold? Turn it up. The Bank does the same, just with interest rates and money flow.

The Overnight Rate During COVID-19

Let’s rewind to early 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic threw a wrench into the global economy. Businesses shut down. Jobs were lost. Uncertainty was everywhere.

In response, the Bank of Canada slashed the overnight rate from 1.75% to 0.25% the lowest it could go. Why? To make borrowing easier and cheaper, so people and businesses could stay afloat.

What happened next:

• Mortgage rates dropped to record lows. Home buying surged.

• Lines of credit became cheaper, helping families manage tight budgets.

• Businesses borrowed at lower costs to keep operations running.

It worked! But it also sparked high demand, rising prices, and eventually... inflation.

How Does This Affect You in the Real World?

Even if you’ve never heard of the overnight rate before, its effects probably show up in your wallet. Here’s how:

1. Borrowing Costs

If you have a variable mortgage, line of credit, or floating-rate loan, your payments likely rise and fall with the overnight rate. Higher rate = higher payments. Lower rate = more room in your budget.

2. Savings & Investments

GICs and savings accounts offer better returns when rates are high. When rates drop, savers often look to riskier investments for better yields.

3. Housing Market Trends

Interest rates influence how affordable mortgages are. Lower rates can fuel demand and push home prices up. Higher rates cool the market and reduce borrowing power.

What’s Happening in 2025?

Right now, the overnight rate sits at 2.75%, after several cuts throughout 2024.

This has brought some relief to homeowners and borrowers. But the economic road ahead is far from smooth.

Inflation vs. Trade Tensions

While inflation has come down, 2025 has brought new challenges—especially around international trade.

New U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and energy have triggered countermeasures from Canada. This back-and-forth is raising costs for Canadian businesses and creating uncertainty.

For the Bank of Canada, this means walking a tightrope:

• Keep inflation under control ✅

• Support economic growth ✅

• Avoid spooking markets during trade conflicts ✅

In short? The overnight rate may stay put for a while, but it’s anyone’s guess what comes next.

Why You Should Pay Attention

You don’t need to track every policy announcement or read through every economic report. But keeping an eye on the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate is a smart move especially if you’re:

• A homebuyer or current homeowner

• A business owner managing loans or credit

• A saver or investor planning your financial future

Understanding this one rate can help you make more informed decisions, plan better, and stay ahead of market shifts.

Because in today’s world, what you don’t know about interest rates can cost you.

📬 Want to stay updated on how rates could affect your mortgage, your savings, or your investment strategy? Subscribe to my newsletter or reach out anytime.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw its strongest July home sales since 2021, signaling a shift in buyer activity as affordability improves.

🔹 Key Highlights:

• 6,100 homes sold – up 10.9% vs. July 2024

• 17,613 new listings – up 5.7% year-over-year

• Average price: $1,051,719 – down 5.5% from last year

• MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: down 5.4% YoY

• Market tightening as sales outpaced listings

• Month-over-month sales also increased vs. June 2025

What’s Driving the Market?

Lower home prices and borrowing costs are helping more households enter the market. While more rate relief is still needed, buyer confidence is returning.

Despite the federal ban, foreign buyers can still purchase multi-unit properties, development land, and rural/recreational homes, supporting economic activity.

Thinking of buying, selling, or investing? Now’s a good time to reassess your plans. Let’s discuss your next move.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) just recorded its best July for home sales since 2021, that has real estate professionals and buyers paying close attention.

According to the latest figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), a total of 6,100 home sales were reported through the MLS® System in July 2025, representing a 10.9% increase compared to July 2024. New listings were also up by 5.7% year-over-year, reaching 17,613.

As a real estate professional working in the GTA, I’m seeing firsthand how market conditions are shifting. This isn't just a seasonal bump; improved affordability and lower borrowing costs are gradually bringing more buyers back into the market.

What’s Driving the Increase in Home Sales?

TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule put it well “Improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs, is starting to translate into increased home sales. More relief is required, particularly where borrowing costs are concerned, but it’s clear that a growing number of households are finding affordable options for homeownership.”

Let’s break that down:

• Home prices have decreased:

  The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark fell by 5.4% year-over-year.

• Average selling price sits at $1,051,719, a 5.5% drop from July 2024.

• More households can now enter the market, particularly first-time homebuyers and families looking to upsize.

These are significant shifts. After several years of rapidly rising home prices and interest rate hikes, many buyers took a wait-and-see approach. But now, with a bit of breathing room, confidence is starting to return.

A Tighter Market, But Not Overheated

While sales rose sharply compared to new listings, listings did not keep pace a sign of modest tightening in market conditions.

From a seller’s perspective, this could mean a slight advantage: more buyer competition and fewer available properties.

From a buyer’s side, it means more urgency, but also more opportunities, especially in neighborhoods where prices have softened but value remains strong.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, both home sales and new listings rose compared to June 2025, but sales rose at a higher rate, another indicator that demand is outpacing supply just slightly.

Housing as a Catalyst for Economic Growth

In a broader economic context, TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer highlights how the housing market could play a pivotal role in driving domestic growth “The housing sector can be a catalyst for growth, with most spin-off expenditures accruing to regional economies. Further interest rate cuts would spur home sales and see more spin-off expenditures, positively impacting the economy and job growth.”

This underscores why real estate isn’t just about property it’s tied to construction jobs, legal services, moving companies, furniture sales, renovations, and more. When home sales pick up, the entire ecosystem benefits.

Foreign Buyers and the Truth Behind the Ban

There’s also a misconception circulating that foreign nationals are completely banned from buying residential property in Canada. That’s not entirely accurate.

TRREB CEO John DiMichele clarified: “There are exemptions that allow non-residents to buy property, resulting in spin-off benefits to the economy.”

Foreign buyers can still purchase:

• Multi-unit residential buildings (4+ units)

• Vacant land or development land

• Recreational or rural properties outside urban centres

So, despite restrictions, international interest remains a factor, especially in the luxury and development sectors.

What This Means for You

If you're a buyer looking for your first home, a seller wondering if it's the right time to list, or an investor eyeing the long-term picture, the GTA housing market is showing positive momentum.

Key takeaways:

• Prices are more affordable than last year.

• Interest rates are stabilizing.

• Demand is returning gradually but steadily.

• Market conditions are tightening, but not overheated.

As a real estate professional here in the GTA, I’m keeping a close eye on this evolving landscape. If you’re thinking of making a move, let’s have a conversation about where the opportunities lie in today’s market.

Get professional guidance based on real-time market data and local insights. Contact me today for a no-obligation consultation.