GTA Market Insights: September 2026

Homebuyers were in a holding pattern in September, as uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs weighed on GTA home sales.

September at a glance

• Sales: 5,040, down 9% from September 2025

• New listings: 16,500, down 14.4% year-over-year

• Average selling price: $1,006,409, down 5.1% year-over-year

• MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: down 4.7% year-over-year

• Compared to August 2026 (seasonally adjusted): sales, new listings and prices all edged lower

What it means

Prices are below where they were a year ago, and fewer homes are coming to market. TRREB points to substantial pent-up demand, but many buyers are waiting for more confidence in their jobs and borrowing costs before they move.

One to watch

The upcoming municipal election will help shape housing policy across the GTA for the next four years, including costs like Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax.

Thinking about buying or selling? Reach out anytime, and I'm happy to talk about what these numbers mean for your neighbourhood.

Paul Lee

REALTOR® | Greater Toronto Area

Source: TRREB, MLS® System, September 2026. GTA-wide figures for general information only.

October 15, 2026

The fall real estate market is typically a time when activity picks up after the summer. But September's numbers suggest that many GTA homebuyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach.

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), there were 5,040 home sales in September 2026, down 9% from a year earlier. New listings also declined, falling 14.4% year-over-year.

What's interesting is that both buyers and sellers appear to be holding back.

Prices have become more affordable compared to last year, and there are buyers who would like to make a move. But concerns about the economy, job security, inflation and borrowing costs continue to influence their decisions.

So what do these numbers tell us about the market, and what should buyers and sellers be thinking about?

September 2026 GTA Real Estate Market at a Glance

Here are the key numbers from TRREB's September market report:

Both sales and new listings also declined compared to August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price fell 5.1% to $1,006,409, while the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark declined 4.7%.

The distinction between these two price measures is worth understanding. The average selling price can be influenced by the types of homes that sell in a given month, while the HPI is designed to track changes in the value of a typical home over time.

Both measures point to lower prices compared to a year ago.

But as I often remind clients, the GTA isn't one single real estate market. A detached home in Markham, a townhouse in North York and a downtown Toronto condo can all experience very different market conditions.

The overall statistics provide useful context, but local inventory, recent comparable sales and buyer activity are what really matter when making a decision.

Buyers Are Interested, But Confidence Remains a Challenge

One of the more interesting observations from TRREB's September report came from Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer, who pointed to the substantial pent-up demand that still exists in the GTA.

Many households want to purchase a home and recognize that prices have become more attractive. The challenge is having enough confidence in their financial outlook to move forward.

And that makes sense.

Buying a home is a significant financial commitment. Even when prices are lower, uncertainty about employment, household expenses or future borrowing costs can make people hesitant.

For someone considering a $1 million purchase, a lower price is certainly helpful. But so is knowing that their income is secure and their monthly payments will remain manageable.

Affordability matters, but confidence matters just as much.

This helps explain why we're seeing buyers continue to research properties, monitor prices and explore their options without necessarily being ready to make a purchase.

It doesn't mean demand has disappeared. Some of it is simply being delayed.

Of course, there is no guarantee that all this pent-up demand will return at once, or that prices will move higher when confidence improves. Much will depend on the broader economy and how market conditions evolve.

Housing Affordability Is Also a Policy Issue

Another important part of September's market commentary was the attention given to housing policy and the upcoming municipal elections.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld highlighted how decisions made by municipal governments over the next four years will influence housing affordability, supply and the cost of homeownership.

TRREB CEO John DiMichele also reiterated the need to reduce barriers to homeownership, including Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax, while opposing any expansion of the tax into other parts of the GTA and Simcoe County.

This is an issue that's particularly meaningful to me.

As a member of TRREB's Government Relations Committee, I've had the opportunity to be involved in discussions and advocacy efforts aimed at improving housing affordability and addressing some of the barriers facing homebuyers and homeowners.

One of those longstanding issues is Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax.

Unlike buyers in most other Ontario municipalities, Toronto purchasers pay both provincial and municipal land transfer taxes. This can add tens of thousands of dollars to the upfront cost of purchasing a home.

Recently, Toronto mayoral candidate Brad Bradford announced a proposal to waive the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on the first $1.1 million of the purchase price of a primary residence.

I wrote about that proposal in a recent blog post, including why it could be meaningful not only for first-time buyers, but also for growing families looking to move up and homeowners considering downsizing.

The proposal has not been implemented, but it's encouraging to see an issue that TRREB has advocated on for many years becoming part of the broader public discussion.

Housing affordability isn't just about home prices or mortgage rates. Transaction costs, housing supply, development policies and government decisions all play a role.

And while policy changes take time, these are important conversations to be having.

What Does This Mean If You're Buying or Selling?

The answer depends on your circumstances.

For Buyers

Today's market offers something we haven't always seen in the GTA: more time to evaluate your options and, in many cases, greater negotiating flexibility.

Prices are lower than they were a year ago, and some sellers are more willing to negotiate on price, closing dates or conditions.

But that doesn't automatically make every property a good purchase.

I would still focus on understanding the property's value relative to comparable sales, its condition, the level of competition and, most importantly, whether the purchase makes sense for your finances and longer-term plans.

Trying to predict the exact bottom of the market is difficult. Making a well-informed purchase at a price you're comfortable with is a more practical approach.

For Sellers

A slower market doesn't mean your home won't sell. It does mean buyers have more choices and are generally more selective.

Pricing, preparation and positioning matter.

Homes that are priced appropriately and presented well can still attract serious interest. On the other hand, properties that are priced based on what similar homes sold for a year or two ago may struggle to generate activity.

I also think it's important for sellers to look beyond the average GTA statistics.

How many comparable properties are currently available in your neighbourhood? How long are they taking to sell? What have recent buyers actually been willing to pay?

Those numbers will tell you much more about your property's position in the market than the GTA average alone.

For Homeowners Planning Their Next Move

There's another group worth considering: homeowners who are both selling and buying.

If you're moving from a condo into a larger home, for example, a softer market may mean accepting less for your current property. But it could also create an opportunity to negotiate a better price on the home you're moving into.

The important number isn't always how much your existing home has changed in value. It's the difference between what you're selling and what you're buying, along with the costs of making that move.

That's why I encourage clients to look at both sides of the transaction before deciding on timing.

What I'll Be Watching in the Months Ahead

September's results suggest that the GTA real estate market is still waiting for greater confidence.

Lower prices have improved affordability to some degree, but economic uncertainty continues to influence buyer behaviour.

I'll be paying particular attention to whether sales activity begins to recover, how inventory levels change and whether the gap between buyer and seller expectations continues to narrow.

I'll also be following the housing policy discussions surrounding the municipal elections, particularly initiatives that could reduce the cost of homeownership and improve housing mobility.

After nearly 20 years in real estate, one thing I've learned is that market conditions are always changing. The challenge isn't predicting every turn. It's understanding the market we're in and making decisions that fit your circumstances.

Whether you're planning to buy, sell or simply keeping an eye on the value of your home, having the right information and perspective makes a difference.

If you'd like to discuss what these market conditions mean for your neighbourhood or your next move, feel free to reach out.

Paul Lee

Broker | Royal LePage Terrequity Realty

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), September 2026 Market Watch. Statistics reflect GTA-wide MLS® activity and may differ significantly by neighbourhood, property type and price range.

October 1, 2026

Toronto homebuyers could potentially save up to $18,000 in Municipal Land Transfer Tax under a new proposal announced today by Toronto mayoral candidate Brad Bradford.

Bradford is proposing to waive Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT) on the first $1.1 million of the purchase price of a primary residence.

For anyone who has purchased a home in Toronto—or considered doing so—that is a significant number.

As a REALTOR® and a member of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Government Relations Committee, I’m especially pleased to see meaningful reform of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax being discussed. This is an issue TRREB has advocated on for many years.

While this is currently a campaign proposal rather than City policy, having substantial MLTT relief become part of the mayoral conversation is an important development for Toronto homebuyers and homeowners.

What Is Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax?

Toronto is unique in Ontario because buyers purchasing property within the City pay a Municipal Land Transfer Tax in addition to the Ontario Land Transfer Tax.

The City introduced the MLTT in 2008.

That means a Toronto homebuyer can effectively face two land transfer tax bills when purchasing a property—one provincial and one municipal.

Under Toronto’s current rates, the municipal tax alone on a $1.1 million residential purchase is approximately $18,000 before any applicable rebates.

And this money is due at closing, when buyers are already managing a down payment, legal fees, moving expenses and other costs associated with purchasing a home.

What Is Being Proposed?

Under Bradford’s proposal, Toronto would provide a full rebate of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on the first $1.1 million of the purchase price of a primary residence.

One particularly significant aspect of the proposal is that the relief would not be limited to first-time homebuyers.

If implemented as proposed, existing homeowners purchasing another primary residence could benefit as well.

For a purchase of $1.1 million, the potential municipal land transfer tax savings would be approximately $18,000.

For properties above $1.1 million, the proposed relief would apply to the first $1.1 million of the purchase price, with the applicable MLTT continuing on the portion above that amount.

To be clear, this has not become law. It is a campaign proposal and would require the necessary steps at City Hall before taking effect.

Why This Matters Beyond First-Time Buyers

When we talk about housing affordability, the focus is understandably often on first-time buyers.

But there is another important part of the housing conversation: mobility.

Consider a growing family living in a condo that needs an extra bedroom and would like to move into a house.

Or an empty-nester living in a larger detached home who would prefer to downsize into a condo.

Both may already own a home, but when they purchase their next Toronto property, the Municipal Land Transfer Tax becomes another significant cost associated with making that move.

That transaction cost can influence people's decisions about whether moving makes financial sense.

Reducing that barrier could make it easier for homeowners to move into housing that better fits their changing needs—and potentially free up housing for the next family or buyer.

A healthy housing market isn't just about helping people get into their first home. It's also about allowing people to move through different types of housing as their lives change.

Years of Advocacy on the Municipal Land Transfer Tax

This announcement is particularly meaningful to me because of my involvement with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Government Relations Committee.

Most consumers understandably don't see much of the advocacy work that happens behind the scenes in organized real estate.

TRREB has been advocating for meaningful reform of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax for many years, raising concerns about the additional upfront cost it places on Toronto homebuyers and the effect transaction taxes can have on housing mobility.

Being involved with the Government Relations Committee has given me an opportunity to see firsthand the amount of work that goes into bringing housing issues to policymakers and keeping those conversations moving.

Policy change rarely happens overnight.

It often requires years of research, meetings, discussions and continued advocacy before an idea gains meaningful traction.

That’s why seeing substantial MLTT relief being discussed in a Toronto mayoral campaign is significant.

Regardless of the outcome of the election or the ultimate form this proposal takes, an issue that TRREB has advocated on for years is now receiving serious public attention.

There Are Still Important Questions to Answer

Of course, there is another side to the discussion.

The Municipal Land Transfer Tax is a significant source of revenue for the City of Toronto. Toronto’s 2026 budget anticipated approximately $850 million in MLTT revenue, with the majority supporting operating costs and the remainder contributing to capital financing.

Any major reduction in the tax therefore raises a legitimate question: How would the City replace that revenue or adjust its spending?

That will be an important part of the debate around this proposal.

Housing policy is rarely solved by one initiative alone. Toronto also needs adequate housing supply, efficient development approvals, infrastructure investment and policies that support the creation of different types of housing.

But reducing the enormous upfront transaction costs associated with purchasing a home deserves to be part of that conversation.

A Significant Development for Toronto Homebuyers

For years, REALTORS® and TRREB have raised concerns about the impact of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on Toronto homebuyers and homeowners.

Today’s announcement does not mean the tax has changed.

But it does represent an important development in a conversation that has been taking place for a very long time.

From my perspective as both a Greater Toronto Area REALTOR® and a member of TRREB’s Government Relations Committee, I’m encouraged to see the cost of moving—and the effect that cost can have on housing affordability and mobility—receiving this level of attention.

I’ll be following this proposal closely as Toronto’s mayoral campaign continues.

In the meantime, if you're considering purchasing a home in Toronto, remember that the Municipal Land Transfer Tax remains in effect under the current rules and should be factored into your closing costs.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Toronto or the Greater Toronto Area and want to understand the costs associated with your next move, feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to have a conversation.

Paul Lee

REALTOR® | Greater Toronto Area

This article is for general informational purposes. The proposal discussed above is a campaign proposal as of October 1, 2026 and has not been implemented as City of Toronto policy. Buyers should obtain legal and financial advice regarding taxes, rebates and closing costs applicable to their individual circumstances.

Fewer Homes, More Competition—Is the Toronto Market Turning?

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is becoming a little harder for buyers to navigate.

In August 2026, fewer homes came onto the market compared with a year ago, and that decline in inventory appears to be influencing overall sales activity. While home sales also edged lower, the bigger story is the sharp drop in new listings—and what that could mean for competition and home prices heading into the fall.

After a period of softer pricing and greater buyer choice, the Toronto real estate market may be entering another stage of transition.

August 2026 GTA Housing Market Snapshot

• Home Sales: 5,057 (↓ 2.1% year over year)

• New Listings: 12,075 (↓ 14.1% year over year)

• Average Selling Price: $993,410 (↓ 2.7% year over year)

• MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: (↓ 4.5% year over year)

• Month-over-Month: Seasonally adjusted sales edged lower, while new listings increased compared with July.

Fewer Listings Are Changing the Market

The most notable figure in August wasn't the modest decline in sales. It was the 14.1% drop in new listings compared with August 2025.

With fewer homes entering the market, buyers in some GTA neighbourhoods are facing less choice than they had previously.

That matters because market conditions are influenced by both sides of the equation. When supply becomes more limited while buyer demand remains relatively steady, competition can gradually increase.

The result may be less negotiating room for buyers and stronger conditions for sellers—particularly for well-priced homes in desirable locations.

GTA Home Prices Are Still Below Last Year

Despite the tightening supply, home prices remain below 2025 levels.

The average selling price in the GTA was $993,410 in August 2026, down 2.7% compared with August 2025.

The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was also down 4.5% year over year.

However, the month-over-month picture is worth watching.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite was essentially unchanged from July, while the average selling price edged higher.

That suggests the pace of price adjustment may be slowing.

If inventory remains tight and buyer activity improves, the market could gradually move toward price stabilization.

What Does the August Market Mean for Buyers?

For GTA home buyers, affordability remains one of the more positive aspects of the current market.

Average prices are still below last year's levels, while mortgage rates have remained relatively stable. This has created a more accessible environment for households that may have been priced out or hesitant to enter the market previously.

But buyers are now facing a different consideration: waiting versus competing.

If inventory continues to tighten and prices begin to stabilize, waiting for greater economic certainty could come with a trade-off.

There is no guarantee that prices will rise sharply, but the current supply trend suggests that buyers should pay close attention to the number of homes available in their specific neighbourhood and price range.

What Does the August Market Mean for Sellers?

The August GTA housing market is showing some encouraging signs for sellers.

The decline in new listings means there is less competition from other sellers compared with a year ago. At the same time, buyers are still active enough to support thousands of transactions across the GTA.

That doesn't mean every property will attract multiple offers or sell quickly.

Pricing remains critical.

Homes that are appropriately priced, well presented, and positioned in desirable neighbourhoods may benefit most if buyer competition continues to increase.

For sellers considering a move this fall, understanding the balance between current inventory and buyer demand may be more important than simply looking at the GTA-wide average price.

Is the Toronto Housing Market Starting to Turn?

It is too early to call this a full market recovery.

However, several indicators are worth watching.

Sales remain relatively active, new listings are significantly lower than last year, and the pace of annual price declines has moderated.

Together, these factors suggest the GTA housing market is gradually moving toward a more balanced environment.

If buyer confidence improves while inventory remains constrained, competition could increase further in the months ahead. That could eventually provide support for home prices.

At the same time, economic uncertainty remains a key factor. Concerns surrounding international trade, inflation, employment, and future borrowing costs continue to influence household decisions.

Housing Supply Remains a Long-Term GTA Challenge

The monthly resale market is only one part of the broader housing picture.

TRREB continues to highlight the need to address structural barriers to housing affordability across Ontario, including restrictive zoning, development charges, taxes, and lengthy approval processes.

These factors influence how much housing can be built, how quickly new projects move forward, and ultimately how much new homes cost.

Improving resale market conditions may help buyers and sellers in the short term, but increasing the long-term supply of attainable housing remains an important challenge for the GTA.

Looking Ahead to Fall 2026

The GTA housing market enters the fall with a noticeably different supply-demand balance than it had a year ago.

Buyers still have opportunities, particularly with prices remaining below last year's levels. But fewer listings mean those opportunities may become more competitive if demand continues to strengthen.

For sellers, the declining supply of competing listings could create more favourable conditions—especially for properties that are priced realistically for today's market.

The key question heading into the fall is whether buyer confidence will improve enough to meet the increasingly limited supply of available homes.

If it does, the GTA could see further stabilization in home prices and potentially renewed price growth later in the year.

As always, the GTA-wide numbers only tell part of the story. Market conditions can vary significantly by neighbourhood, property type, and price range. Understanding what is happening in your specific area is ultimately more useful than relying on the headline numbers alone.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to tighten in August 2026 as fewer homes came onto the market compared with a year ago.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,057 home sales, down 2.1% year over year, while new listings fell 14.1% to 12,075. The larger decline in new listings suggests that reduced inventory may be limiting buyer choice in some neighbourhoods.

Home prices remain below last year's levels, with the average selling price at $993,410, down 2.7% year over year. The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark declined 4.5%.

However, the month-over-month trend is beginning to change. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite was essentially flat from July, while the average selling price edged higher.

What This Means

Buyers continue to benefit from improved affordability, but fewer available homes could mean more competition if demand strengthens through the fall.

For sellers, tighter inventory may create more favourable conditions for well-priced properties.

The GTA market is not yet in a full recovery, but the combination of declining inventory and slowing price declines is worth watching closely as we move into the final months of 2026.