The Bank of Canada recently announced that they will be holding its key policy rate steady at 2.75%

Now, what does that actually mean for the real estate market and your next move?

💡 Quick Overview

The Bank of Canada decided not to change its interest rate. This key rate is the one that influences how much banks charge us on loans, mortgages, and lines of credit.

Right now:

• Policy rate stays at 2.75%

• Bank rate at 3%

• Deposit rate at 2.70%

In simple terms, borrowing costs are holding steady for now.

🌍 What’s Behind the Decision?

Global trade tensions are still simmering, especially between the U.S. and other countries. Tariffs are making things unpredictable. These tensions affect everything from the cost of goods to how businesses operate, and even the strength of our own economy here in Canada.

Despite all this, Canada’s economy has shown some resilience. We had strong growth earlier this year, but that was partly due to businesses rushing to export goods ahead of new U.S. tariffs. After that rush, the economy slowed down a bit, GDP likely shrank by 1.5% in Q2.

And while unemployment is up slightly (6.9% in June) and wage growth is slowing, the overall picture isn’t all doom and gloom. Some sectors are still hanging in there.

🏘️ Why It Matters for Buyers and Sellers

If you're a buyer, this pause in interest rate changes is actually welcome news. It signals stability. Mortgage rates are closely tied to these decisions and with no hike this month, you're not seeing your future payments creep higher (at least for now).

If you're a seller, this stability helps buyer confidence. When borrowing costs are predictable, more people feel comfortable entering the market. That can help support demand for your property.

Plus, inflation is currently sitting around 2%, which means the Bank of Canada isn’t in a rush to cool the economy further unless something shifts.

What Could Happen Next?

The Bank is watching several moving parts closely:

• Will U.S. tariffs slow our exports more?

• Will uncertainty make businesses pull back on hiring or investing?

• Will inflation heat up if companies pass on more of their cost increases?

If trade disruptions ease or the economy weakens further, there could even be a rate cut in the future. On the flip side, if inflation surprises on the upside, the Bank might have to tighten again.

What Should You Watch As a Buyer or Seller?

1. Mortgage rates: No change now, but keep your eye on fixed vs. variable trends.

2. Inflation: If inflation stays tame, pressure for rate hikes eases, this is a good news for affordability.

3. Economic confidence: The more stable things feel, the more active buyers and sellers become.

4. Global trade headlines: What’s happening in the U.S. and China might sound far away, but it has ripple effects here especially if it impacts jobs and costs.

📅 What’s Next?

The next Bank of Canada rate decision comes on September 17, 2025. That’s the date to circle if you’re watching the market or thinking of making a move.

We’re in a wait-and-see phase. Rates are holding steady, the economy is adjusting, and the real estate market is still finding its rhythm in this post-tariff, post-pandemic world. Whether you're buying your first home, upsizing, or planning to sell, it's a good time to stay informed and to keep asking the right questions.

If you ever want to talk through how all of this might affect your next step, we're always here to help interpret the bigger picture. But for now breathe easy, the rates are staying put.

Subscribe to our newsletter to stay posted on future rate updates.

Home sales in the GTA dipped 2.4% this June compared to last year, but new listings jumped nearly 8%, giving buyers more options and flexibility to negotiate.

The average selling price came in at about $1.1M, roughly 5.4% lower than June 2024. Prices and sales edged down slightly from May, though there’s still some momentum from the spring market.

Lower borrowing costs and more listings are making homeownership a bit more within reach for some buyers. Still, many are staying on the sidelines, waiting for more economic stability and clearer signs of recovery.

If interest rates continue to drop and confidence grows, we could see more movement in the market and maybe even some support for prices.

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Affordability improves, but uncertainty lingers. Here’s what homebuyers and investors need to know.

If you've been sitting on the fence about entering the Greater Toronto Area real estate market, you’re not alone. June 2025 saw some interesting developments that could tip the scales for buyers but it's not as straightforward as just price drops or lower rates.

Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to secure your starter home, or an investor waiting for the right conditions to expand your portfolio, this month’s market snapshot is worth a closer look.

Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and what it could mean for your next move in real estate.

✅ Affordability is Improving — But Caution Remains

Good news first: housing affordability continued to improve in June 2025.

That’s largely thanks to two things:

• Lower average selling prices compared to this time last year

• Reduced borrowing costs (interest rates aren’t as punishing as they were in 2024)

The average GTA home sold for $1,101,691 in June, which is 5.4% lower year-over-year. This drop, combined with easing mortgage rates, means that monthly payments are becoming more manageable for many households.

But here’s the twist: despite these improvements, many potential buyers are still hesitant. Economic uncertainty ranging from trade tensions to crime and safety concerns continues to influence consumer confidence.

📉 Sales Are Down Year-over-Year, but Rising Month-to-Month

Let’s talk numbers:

• 6,243 home sales were recorded in June, a 2.4% drop from June 2024

• But on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up compared to May 2025

• New listings rose year-over-year by 7.7%, giving buyers more choice

• Month-over-month, however, listings actually dropped tightening inventory again

What does that mean?

There’s more selection than last year, and buyers are negotiating better deals, especially with sellers adjusting to current price trends. But fewer new listings in recent weeks could put upward pressure on prices if buyer activity picks up.

🧠 What This Means for Buyers and Investors

🏠 First-Time Buyers:

This could be the window of opportunity you've been waiting for.

With more room to negotiate and slightly lower prices, you have a better chance of entering the market before it heats up again. Just keep in mind that economic uncertainty still lingers, so make sure your financial foundation is solid before diving in.

💼 Investors:

Lower prices and more supply could signal smart buying opportunities especially if you’re looking to flip or rent. But remember: the market isn’t booming just yet. You may need to play the long game for returns, especially if you’re eyeing appreciation-based gains.

💬 Looking Ahead: What Could Shift the Market Next?

According to TRREB’s Chief Information Officer, two additional interest rate cuts and improved U.S.-Canada trade relations could give the market a significant boost. Lower borrowing costs would make homeownership even more attainable, potentially increasing competition and raising prices again.

There’s also growing concern around public safety, with a spotlight on home invasions and carjackings in the GTA. While the government is working on tougher crime legislation, this issue could influence neighborhood desirability and buyer confidence in specific areas.

The GTA housing market is showing signs of steady recovery, and there are opportunities for strategic buyers and investors. But it’s not a free-for-all—uncertainty still plays a big role in decision-making.

If you’re thinking about buying, stay informed, assess your risk tolerance, and work with professionals who understand the current landscape. The rest of 2025 could bring more shifts—so be ready to move when the time is right.

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