October 15, 2026

The fall real estate market is typically a time when activity picks up after the summer. But September's numbers suggest that many GTA homebuyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach.

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), there were 5,040 home sales in September 2026, down 9% from a year earlier. New listings also declined, falling 14.4% year-over-year.

What's interesting is that both buyers and sellers appear to be holding back.

Prices have become more affordable compared to last year, and there are buyers who would like to make a move. But concerns about the economy, job security, inflation and borrowing costs continue to influence their decisions.

So what do these numbers tell us about the market, and what should buyers and sellers be thinking about?

September 2026 GTA Real Estate Market at a Glance

Here are the key numbers from TRREB's September market report:

Both sales and new listings also declined compared to August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price fell 5.1% to $1,006,409, while the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark declined 4.7%.

The distinction between these two price measures is worth understanding. The average selling price can be influenced by the types of homes that sell in a given month, while the HPI is designed to track changes in the value of a typical home over time.

Both measures point to lower prices compared to a year ago.

But as I often remind clients, the GTA isn't one single real estate market. A detached home in Markham, a townhouse in North York and a downtown Toronto condo can all experience very different market conditions.

The overall statistics provide useful context, but local inventory, recent comparable sales and buyer activity are what really matter when making a decision.

Buyers Are Interested, But Confidence Remains a Challenge

One of the more interesting observations from TRREB's September report came from Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer, who pointed to the substantial pent-up demand that still exists in the GTA.

Many households want to purchase a home and recognize that prices have become more attractive. The challenge is having enough confidence in their financial outlook to move forward.

And that makes sense.

Buying a home is a significant financial commitment. Even when prices are lower, uncertainty about employment, household expenses or future borrowing costs can make people hesitant.

For someone considering a $1 million purchase, a lower price is certainly helpful. But so is knowing that their income is secure and their monthly payments will remain manageable.

Affordability matters, but confidence matters just as much.

This helps explain why we're seeing buyers continue to research properties, monitor prices and explore their options without necessarily being ready to make a purchase.

It doesn't mean demand has disappeared. Some of it is simply being delayed.

Of course, there is no guarantee that all this pent-up demand will return at once, or that prices will move higher when confidence improves. Much will depend on the broader economy and how market conditions evolve.

Housing Affordability Is Also a Policy Issue

Another important part of September's market commentary was the attention given to housing policy and the upcoming municipal elections.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld highlighted how decisions made by municipal governments over the next four years will influence housing affordability, supply and the cost of homeownership.

TRREB CEO John DiMichele also reiterated the need to reduce barriers to homeownership, including Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax, while opposing any expansion of the tax into other parts of the GTA and Simcoe County.

This is an issue that's particularly meaningful to me.

As a member of TRREB's Government Relations Committee, I've had the opportunity to be involved in discussions and advocacy efforts aimed at improving housing affordability and addressing some of the barriers facing homebuyers and homeowners.

One of those longstanding issues is Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax.

Unlike buyers in most other Ontario municipalities, Toronto purchasers pay both provincial and municipal land transfer taxes. This can add tens of thousands of dollars to the upfront cost of purchasing a home.

Recently, Toronto mayoral candidate Brad Bradford announced a proposal to waive the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on the first $1.1 million of the purchase price of a primary residence.

I wrote about that proposal in a recent blog post, including why it could be meaningful not only for first-time buyers, but also for growing families looking to move up and homeowners considering downsizing.

The proposal has not been implemented, but it's encouraging to see an issue that TRREB has advocated on for many years becoming part of the broader public discussion.

Housing affordability isn't just about home prices or mortgage rates. Transaction costs, housing supply, development policies and government decisions all play a role.

And while policy changes take time, these are important conversations to be having.

What Does This Mean If You're Buying or Selling?

The answer depends on your circumstances.

For Buyers

Today's market offers something we haven't always seen in the GTA: more time to evaluate your options and, in many cases, greater negotiating flexibility.

Prices are lower than they were a year ago, and some sellers are more willing to negotiate on price, closing dates or conditions.

But that doesn't automatically make every property a good purchase.

I would still focus on understanding the property's value relative to comparable sales, its condition, the level of competition and, most importantly, whether the purchase makes sense for your finances and longer-term plans.

Trying to predict the exact bottom of the market is difficult. Making a well-informed purchase at a price you're comfortable with is a more practical approach.

For Sellers

A slower market doesn't mean your home won't sell. It does mean buyers have more choices and are generally more selective.

Pricing, preparation and positioning matter.

Homes that are priced appropriately and presented well can still attract serious interest. On the other hand, properties that are priced based on what similar homes sold for a year or two ago may struggle to generate activity.

I also think it's important for sellers to look beyond the average GTA statistics.

How many comparable properties are currently available in your neighbourhood? How long are they taking to sell? What have recent buyers actually been willing to pay?

Those numbers will tell you much more about your property's position in the market than the GTA average alone.

For Homeowners Planning Their Next Move

There's another group worth considering: homeowners who are both selling and buying.

If you're moving from a condo into a larger home, for example, a softer market may mean accepting less for your current property. But it could also create an opportunity to negotiate a better price on the home you're moving into.

The important number isn't always how much your existing home has changed in value. It's the difference between what you're selling and what you're buying, along with the costs of making that move.

That's why I encourage clients to look at both sides of the transaction before deciding on timing.

What I'll Be Watching in the Months Ahead

September's results suggest that the GTA real estate market is still waiting for greater confidence.

Lower prices have improved affordability to some degree, but economic uncertainty continues to influence buyer behaviour.

I'll be paying particular attention to whether sales activity begins to recover, how inventory levels change and whether the gap between buyer and seller expectations continues to narrow.

I'll also be following the housing policy discussions surrounding the municipal elections, particularly initiatives that could reduce the cost of homeownership and improve housing mobility.

After nearly 20 years in real estate, one thing I've learned is that market conditions are always changing. The challenge isn't predicting every turn. It's understanding the market we're in and making decisions that fit your circumstances.

Whether you're planning to buy, sell or simply keeping an eye on the value of your home, having the right information and perspective makes a difference.

If you'd like to discuss what these market conditions mean for your neighbourhood or your next move, feel free to reach out.

Paul Lee

Broker | Royal LePage Terrequity Realty

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), September 2026 Market Watch. Statistics reflect GTA-wide MLS® activity and may differ significantly by neighbourhood, property type and price range.

October 1, 2026

Toronto homebuyers could potentially save up to $18,000 in Municipal Land Transfer Tax under a new proposal announced today by Toronto mayoral candidate Brad Bradford.

Bradford is proposing to waive Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT) on the first $1.1 million of the purchase price of a primary residence.

For anyone who has purchased a home in Toronto—or considered doing so—that is a significant number.

As a REALTOR® and a member of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Government Relations Committee, I’m especially pleased to see meaningful reform of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax being discussed. This is an issue TRREB has advocated on for many years.

While this is currently a campaign proposal rather than City policy, having substantial MLTT relief become part of the mayoral conversation is an important development for Toronto homebuyers and homeowners.

What Is Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax?

Toronto is unique in Ontario because buyers purchasing property within the City pay a Municipal Land Transfer Tax in addition to the Ontario Land Transfer Tax.

The City introduced the MLTT in 2008.

That means a Toronto homebuyer can effectively face two land transfer tax bills when purchasing a property—one provincial and one municipal.

Under Toronto’s current rates, the municipal tax alone on a $1.1 million residential purchase is approximately $18,000 before any applicable rebates.

And this money is due at closing, when buyers are already managing a down payment, legal fees, moving expenses and other costs associated with purchasing a home.

What Is Being Proposed?

Under Bradford’s proposal, Toronto would provide a full rebate of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on the first $1.1 million of the purchase price of a primary residence.

One particularly significant aspect of the proposal is that the relief would not be limited to first-time homebuyers.

If implemented as proposed, existing homeowners purchasing another primary residence could benefit as well.

For a purchase of $1.1 million, the potential municipal land transfer tax savings would be approximately $18,000.

For properties above $1.1 million, the proposed relief would apply to the first $1.1 million of the purchase price, with the applicable MLTT continuing on the portion above that amount.

To be clear, this has not become law. It is a campaign proposal and would require the necessary steps at City Hall before taking effect.

Why This Matters Beyond First-Time Buyers

When we talk about housing affordability, the focus is understandably often on first-time buyers.

But there is another important part of the housing conversation: mobility.

Consider a growing family living in a condo that needs an extra bedroom and would like to move into a house.

Or an empty-nester living in a larger detached home who would prefer to downsize into a condo.

Both may already own a home, but when they purchase their next Toronto property, the Municipal Land Transfer Tax becomes another significant cost associated with making that move.

That transaction cost can influence people's decisions about whether moving makes financial sense.

Reducing that barrier could make it easier for homeowners to move into housing that better fits their changing needs—and potentially free up housing for the next family or buyer.

A healthy housing market isn't just about helping people get into their first home. It's also about allowing people to move through different types of housing as their lives change.

Years of Advocacy on the Municipal Land Transfer Tax

This announcement is particularly meaningful to me because of my involvement with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Government Relations Committee.

Most consumers understandably don't see much of the advocacy work that happens behind the scenes in organized real estate.

TRREB has been advocating for meaningful reform of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax for many years, raising concerns about the additional upfront cost it places on Toronto homebuyers and the effect transaction taxes can have on housing mobility.

Being involved with the Government Relations Committee has given me an opportunity to see firsthand the amount of work that goes into bringing housing issues to policymakers and keeping those conversations moving.

Policy change rarely happens overnight.

It often requires years of research, meetings, discussions and continued advocacy before an idea gains meaningful traction.

That’s why seeing substantial MLTT relief being discussed in a Toronto mayoral campaign is significant.

Regardless of the outcome of the election or the ultimate form this proposal takes, an issue that TRREB has advocated on for years is now receiving serious public attention.

There Are Still Important Questions to Answer

Of course, there is another side to the discussion.

The Municipal Land Transfer Tax is a significant source of revenue for the City of Toronto. Toronto’s 2026 budget anticipated approximately $850 million in MLTT revenue, with the majority supporting operating costs and the remainder contributing to capital financing.

Any major reduction in the tax therefore raises a legitimate question: How would the City replace that revenue or adjust its spending?

That will be an important part of the debate around this proposal.

Housing policy is rarely solved by one initiative alone. Toronto also needs adequate housing supply, efficient development approvals, infrastructure investment and policies that support the creation of different types of housing.

But reducing the enormous upfront transaction costs associated with purchasing a home deserves to be part of that conversation.

A Significant Development for Toronto Homebuyers

For years, REALTORS® and TRREB have raised concerns about the impact of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on Toronto homebuyers and homeowners.

Today’s announcement does not mean the tax has changed.

But it does represent an important development in a conversation that has been taking place for a very long time.

From my perspective as both a Greater Toronto Area REALTOR® and a member of TRREB’s Government Relations Committee, I’m encouraged to see the cost of moving—and the effect that cost can have on housing affordability and mobility—receiving this level of attention.

I’ll be following this proposal closely as Toronto’s mayoral campaign continues.

In the meantime, if you're considering purchasing a home in Toronto, remember that the Municipal Land Transfer Tax remains in effect under the current rules and should be factored into your closing costs.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Toronto or the Greater Toronto Area and want to understand the costs associated with your next move, feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to have a conversation.

Paul Lee

REALTOR® | Greater Toronto Area

This article is for general informational purposes. The proposal discussed above is a campaign proposal as of October 1, 2026 and has not been implemented as City of Toronto policy. Buyers should obtain legal and financial advice regarding taxes, rebates and closing costs applicable to their individual circumstances.

Fewer Homes, More Competition—Is the Toronto Market Turning?

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is becoming a little harder for buyers to navigate.

In August 2026, fewer homes came onto the market compared with a year ago, and that decline in inventory appears to be influencing overall sales activity. While home sales also edged lower, the bigger story is the sharp drop in new listings—and what that could mean for competition and home prices heading into the fall.

After a period of softer pricing and greater buyer choice, the Toronto real estate market may be entering another stage of transition.

August 2026 GTA Housing Market Snapshot

• Home Sales: 5,057 (↓ 2.1% year over year)

• New Listings: 12,075 (↓ 14.1% year over year)

• Average Selling Price: $993,410 (↓ 2.7% year over year)

• MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: (↓ 4.5% year over year)

• Month-over-Month: Seasonally adjusted sales edged lower, while new listings increased compared with July.

Fewer Listings Are Changing the Market

The most notable figure in August wasn't the modest decline in sales. It was the 14.1% drop in new listings compared with August 2025.

With fewer homes entering the market, buyers in some GTA neighbourhoods are facing less choice than they had previously.

That matters because market conditions are influenced by both sides of the equation. When supply becomes more limited while buyer demand remains relatively steady, competition can gradually increase.

The result may be less negotiating room for buyers and stronger conditions for sellers—particularly for well-priced homes in desirable locations.

GTA Home Prices Are Still Below Last Year

Despite the tightening supply, home prices remain below 2025 levels.

The average selling price in the GTA was $993,410 in August 2026, down 2.7% compared with August 2025.

The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was also down 4.5% year over year.

However, the month-over-month picture is worth watching.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite was essentially unchanged from July, while the average selling price edged higher.

That suggests the pace of price adjustment may be slowing.

If inventory remains tight and buyer activity improves, the market could gradually move toward price stabilization.

What Does the August Market Mean for Buyers?

For GTA home buyers, affordability remains one of the more positive aspects of the current market.

Average prices are still below last year's levels, while mortgage rates have remained relatively stable. This has created a more accessible environment for households that may have been priced out or hesitant to enter the market previously.

But buyers are now facing a different consideration: waiting versus competing.

If inventory continues to tighten and prices begin to stabilize, waiting for greater economic certainty could come with a trade-off.

There is no guarantee that prices will rise sharply, but the current supply trend suggests that buyers should pay close attention to the number of homes available in their specific neighbourhood and price range.

What Does the August Market Mean for Sellers?

The August GTA housing market is showing some encouraging signs for sellers.

The decline in new listings means there is less competition from other sellers compared with a year ago. At the same time, buyers are still active enough to support thousands of transactions across the GTA.

That doesn't mean every property will attract multiple offers or sell quickly.

Pricing remains critical.

Homes that are appropriately priced, well presented, and positioned in desirable neighbourhoods may benefit most if buyer competition continues to increase.

For sellers considering a move this fall, understanding the balance between current inventory and buyer demand may be more important than simply looking at the GTA-wide average price.

Is the Toronto Housing Market Starting to Turn?

It is too early to call this a full market recovery.

However, several indicators are worth watching.

Sales remain relatively active, new listings are significantly lower than last year, and the pace of annual price declines has moderated.

Together, these factors suggest the GTA housing market is gradually moving toward a more balanced environment.

If buyer confidence improves while inventory remains constrained, competition could increase further in the months ahead. That could eventually provide support for home prices.

At the same time, economic uncertainty remains a key factor. Concerns surrounding international trade, inflation, employment, and future borrowing costs continue to influence household decisions.

Housing Supply Remains a Long-Term GTA Challenge

The monthly resale market is only one part of the broader housing picture.

TRREB continues to highlight the need to address structural barriers to housing affordability across Ontario, including restrictive zoning, development charges, taxes, and lengthy approval processes.

These factors influence how much housing can be built, how quickly new projects move forward, and ultimately how much new homes cost.

Improving resale market conditions may help buyers and sellers in the short term, but increasing the long-term supply of attainable housing remains an important challenge for the GTA.

Looking Ahead to Fall 2026

The GTA housing market enters the fall with a noticeably different supply-demand balance than it had a year ago.

Buyers still have opportunities, particularly with prices remaining below last year's levels. But fewer listings mean those opportunities may become more competitive if demand continues to strengthen.

For sellers, the declining supply of competing listings could create more favourable conditions—especially for properties that are priced realistically for today's market.

The key question heading into the fall is whether buyer confidence will improve enough to meet the increasingly limited supply of available homes.

If it does, the GTA could see further stabilization in home prices and potentially renewed price growth later in the year.

As always, the GTA-wide numbers only tell part of the story. Market conditions can vary significantly by neighbourhood, property type, and price range. Understanding what is happening in your specific area is ultimately more useful than relying on the headline numbers alone.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its gradual shift in July 2026, with tighter market conditions becoming more evident as the summer progressed.

While overall home sales remained relatively stable compared to a year ago, the supply of new listings declined sharply. As a result, buyers are beginning to face more competition, and the negotiating advantages seen earlier this year may slowly begin to narrow.

For anyone following the Toronto real estate market, July reinforces a trend that has been building for several months: inventory is shrinking, buyer activity is holding steady, and market balance is gradually changing.

GTA Home Sales Remain Resilient Despite Economic Uncertainty

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 5,995 homes were sold across the GTA in July 2026, just 0.9% lower than July 2025.

While sales were essentially flat year over year, the more significant change came from the supply side.

Only 14,484 new listings entered the MLS® System during the month, representing a 17.8% decline compared to last year.

Seasonally adjusted data also showed that home sales increased compared to June while new listings declined again, continuing the tightening trend seen throughout the summer.

This means that active buyers are competing over fewer available homes—a dynamic that often supports stronger pricing over time.

GTA Home Prices Continue to Stabilize

Although prices remain below last year's levels, the pace of decline continues to moderate.

July 2026 Market Statistics:

• Average Home Price: $1,003,956

• Average Selling Price: Down 4.5% year over year

• MLS® Home Price Index: Down 4.6% year over year

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI edged slightly higher compared to June, while the average selling price remained relatively stable.

Rather than pointing to further price weakness, these figures suggest the market may be approaching a more balanced environment.

What This Means for GTA Buyers

Buyers continue to benefit from improved affordability compared to recent years, but conditions are beginning to change.

With fewer homes entering the market, buyers may have fewer opportunities to negotiate than they did earlier this year.

Economic uncertainty—including inflation, borrowing costs, and global trade concerns—continues to influence purchasing decisions. However, stronger-than-expected employment and economic data could encourage more buyers to return to the market if confidence continues improving.

Those planning to purchase later this year may want to watch inventory levels closely, as tighter supply could gradually increase competition.

What This Means for GTA Sellers

The market is becoming more encouraging for sellers.

Although pricing has not fully recovered, declining inventory means well-presented and appropriately priced homes may attract greater buyer interest than they did earlier in the year.

Success still depends on pricing strategy, location, and property condition, but improving supply-demand balance is creating more favourable conditions for many sellers.

Housing Supply Remains a Long-Term Challenge

Beyond monthly statistics, TRREB continues to emphasize the importance of improving housing affordability by addressing municipal barriers to new housing.

Restrictive zoning, lengthy approval processes, and rising development costs continue to add significant expenses to new housing construction across the GTA.

Reducing these barriers remains an important part of improving long-term housing affordability for future buyers.

July 2026 GTA Market Snapshot

• Average Home Price: $1,003,956 (↓ 4.5% YoY)

• Home Sales: 5,995 (↓ 0.9% YoY)

• New Listings: 14,484 (↓ 17.8% YoY)

• MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: (↓ 4.6% YoY)

• Month-over-Month: Sales increased while new listings declined, signalling continued tightening through the summer.

Looking Ahead

The GTA housing market continues to move toward greater balance.

While buyers still have opportunities, the combination of declining inventory and steady demand suggests market conditions could become more competitive as we head into the fall.

If buyer confidence continues to improve and listing inventory remains limited, home prices may begin to stabilize further in the months ahead.

As always, every neighbourhood tells a different story. Understanding how these broader market trends affect your local community is the key to making confident real estate decisions, whether you're buying, selling, or simply planning your next move.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to gain momentum in June 2026, offering one of the clearest signs yet that conditions may be shifting after a cautious start to the year.

For much of the past 12 months, buyers have benefited from greater choice, softer pricing, and stronger negotiating power. Those advantages haven't disappeared—but they may not be as abundant if current trends continue.

June saw home sales increase while new listings declined, gradually tightening market conditions across the GTA. While affordability remains improved compared to last year, inventory is becoming more limited, and competition is beginning to return in some neighbourhoods.

If you're planning to buy, sell, or simply keeping an eye on the Toronto real estate market, here's what you need to know.

Toronto Home Sales Continue to Climb

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), GTA REALTORS® reported 6,770 home sales in June 2026, representing a 9.4% increase compared to June 2025.

At the same time, 17,282 new listings entered the market, down 12.9% year over year.

This combination of rising sales and fewer new listings points to gradually tightening market conditions. Buyers are becoming more active while the number of available homes is no longer growing at the same pace.

Seasonally adjusted data also showed that compared to May, home sales increased while new listings declined, reinforcing the trend that developed throughout the spring market.

GTA Home Prices Are Stabilizing

While home prices remain below last year's levels, the pace of decline continues to slow.

In June 2026:

• Average GTA home price: $1,058,658

• Average selling price: Down 3.9% year over year

• MLS® Home Price Index (HPI): Down 5.4% year over year

More importantly, both the average selling price and the MLS® HPI posted modest month-over-month increases after seasonal adjustment.

This suggests that prices may be beginning to stabilize after a prolonged period of softer market conditions.

Rather than seeing sharp downward pressure, the market appears to be moving toward a more balanced environment.

What Does This Mean for GTA Home Buyers?

Buyers continue to benefit from improved affordability compared to recent years.

Mortgage borrowing costs have eased from previous highs, and prices remain lower than they were a year ago. Combined with a more balanced market, this has created opportunities that many buyers have been waiting for.

However, the landscape is beginning to change.

As more buyers return to the market and fewer new listings become available, competition could gradually increase through the second half of 2026.

For buyers who have been waiting for the "perfect" moment, it's worth recognizing that today's negotiating conditions may not remain the same if inventory continues to tighten.

What Does This Mean for GTA Home Sellers?

The market is becoming more encouraging for sellers.

Although prices have not fully recovered, stronger buyer activity means well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods may begin attracting increased attention.

This doesn't mean every property will sell quickly.

Pricing strategy, presentation, location, and property type continue to play a significant role in today's market.

The difference is that sellers may begin benefiting from improving market conditions if buyer demand continues strengthening while listing inventory remains limited.

Why Inventory Matters

Inventory has been one of the biggest stories throughout 2026.

When new listings decline while buyer demand increases, the balance between supply and demand begins to shift.

That shift doesn't immediately create a seller's market, but it often lays the foundation for:

• More competition among buyers

• Shorter time on market for well-priced homes

• Improved negotiating conditions for sellers

• Greater price stability

This is exactly the trend that appears to be developing as the GTA moves into the second half of the year.

Housing Affordability Remains a Key Issue

TRREB also highlighted the continued impact of development charges on housing affordability.

Development charges can account for up to 20% of the purchase price of a newly built home, increasing costs for both buyers and renters.

TRREB has expressed support for the proposed Canada–Ontario Development Charge Reduction Program, which aims to reduce these costs while allowing municipalities to continue funding critical infrastructure.

If implemented effectively, measures like these could help improve long-term housing affordability across the Greater Toronto Area.

June 2026 GTA Market Snapshot

📌 Average Home Price: $1,058,658 (↓ 3.9% year over year)

📌 Home Sales: 6,770 (↑ 9.4% year over year)

📌 New Listings: 17,282 (↓ 12.9% year over year)

📌 MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: (↓ 5.4% year over year)

📌 Month-over-Month Trend: Sales increased while new listings declined, with both average price and the MLS® HPI posting modest gains after seasonal adjustment.

Looking Ahead: Is the GTA Housing Market Recovering?

The first half of 2026 has unfolded largely as expected.

After a quieter first quarter, the second quarter brought stronger buyer activity and signs that the market is beginning to tighten.

While it's too early to declare a full recovery, several indicators suggest momentum is building.

If home sales continue rising while new listings remain constrained, competition could increase through the remainder of the year. That may gradually support price stability and encourage more buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to re-enter the market.

Every neighbourhood responds differently to changing market conditions. While headlines provide a useful overview, understanding what's happening in your local area remains the most valuable insight.

Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply staying informed, knowing how these broader trends translate to your neighbourhood can help you make more confident real estate decisions.

The Greater Toronto Area housing market continued to show signs of recovery in May 2026, with home sales increasing while new listings declined significantly compared to the same period last year. This combination has resulted in a tighter market environment and could signal a shift toward stronger price stability in the months ahead.

As a real estate professional who closely follows market trends across Toronto, Markham, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, and surrounding GTA communities, I believe May's numbers provide valuable insight into where the market may be headed during the second half of 2026.

GTA Home Sales Increase While New Listings Fall

According to the latest TRREB statistics, GTA REALTORS® reported 6,583 home sales in May 2026, representing a 6.3% increase compared to May 2025.

At the same time, only 17,698 new listings were added to the MLS® System, down 18.9% year over year.

This is an important shift. Over the past year, many buyers have benefited from abundant inventory and strong negotiating power. However, as inventory levels gradually decline and more homes are absorbed by the market, competition is beginning to increase in certain neighbourhoods and property segments.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased by 10% compared to April 2026, while new listings declined by 2.1%. This monthly trend further reinforces the fact that market conditions are tightening.

May 2026 GTA Market Snapshot

6,583 home sales

🔼 6.3% year over year

17,698 New listings

🔻 18.9% year over year

$1,069,700 Average Selling Price

🔻 4.6% year over year

MLS® HPI Benchmark

🔻 6.7% year over year

Months over Months Trends

• Sales increased 10% from April 2026

• New listings decreased 2.1%

• Average selling price edged slightly higher

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers have continued to enjoy improved affordability throughout 2026 due to lower home prices and borrowing costs compared to previous years.

While negotiating opportunities still exist, particularly in some condo segments and higher inventory areas, today's market is becoming more balanced.

If sales continue to strengthen while listing activity remains subdued, buyers may begin to face increased competition and fewer opportunities to negotiate aggressively. Those who have been waiting on the sidelines may want to pay close attention to market conditions over the coming months.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, May's numbers are encouraging.

Although average prices remain below last year's levels, the decline in available inventory is helping to create a healthier supply and demand balance. Well presented and strategically priced properties continue to attract strong interest from qualified buyers.

As inventory levels continue to decline and buyer confidence improves, sellers could benefit from a more competitive environment moving into late 2026 and early 2027.

Outlook for the Second Half of 2026

TRREB expects sales activity to continue improving throughout the remainder of the year. Factors supporting market recovery include:

• Lower borrowing costs

• Improved affordability compared to previous years

• Potential easing of trade uncertainty

• Greater economic confidence among consumers

If demand strengthens faster than new listings enter the market, home prices are expected to stabilize and potentially begin growing as we move closer to 2027.

Housing Supply Remains a Key Issue

TRREB has also expressed support for Bill 98, the Building Homes and Improving Transportation Infrastructure Act, 2026.

The legislation aims to reduce barriers to housing development and improve the speed and efficiency of bringing new homes to market. Increasing housing supply remains one of the most important long term solutions for improving affordability across Ontario.

The GTA housing market is showing clear signs of tightening as sales increase and inventory levels decline. While buyers still have meaningful negotiating power in many areas, the balance between supply and demand is gradually shifting.

Whether you are considering buying, selling, investing, or simply monitoring the market, understanding these trends can help you make more informed real estate decisions.

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Spring market activity has picked up across the GTA, although the overall picture remains fairly balanced.

April marked the first full month of the spring market, and TRREB’s latest numbers showed an increase in sales alongside a noticeable pullback in new listings. While it’s still not an aggressive seller’s market by any means, there are some early signs that conditions may be tightening slightly in certain areas.

At the same time, prices remain below last year’s levels, which continues to create opportunities for buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines.

April 2026 GTA Market Snapshot

• Home sales reached 5,946, up 7% compared to April 2025

• New listings came in at 17,097, down 9.3% year over year

• The average selling price was $1,051,969, down 4.9% from last year

• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark declined 6.6% year over year

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings increased from March, with sales rising at a faster pace than listings

One thing worth noting is that while prices remain lower on a year-over-year basis, the monthly trend has been relatively stable over the last few months after the softer start to the year. That doesn’t necessarily mean prices are about to move sharply higher, but it may suggest the market is finding more balance.

What I’m Seeing From Buyers

Lower prices and improved borrowing conditions compared to last year have helped bring some buyers back into the market this spring.

Many buyers still have options and negotiating leverage, particularly in segments where inventory remains elevated. At the same time, well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods are seeing stronger activity than they were earlier this year.

Overall, buyers are becoming more active — but most are still being cautious and selective. Confidence hasn’t fully returned across the board yet, especially with broader economic uncertainty still in the background.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, strategy matters more than ever in this type of market.

This isn’t the highly competitive environment we saw a few years ago, but properly priced and well-presented homes are still selling — especially when expectations are aligned with current market conditions.

One of the biggest mistakes sellers can make right now is relying too heavily on pricing from last year’s market. Buyers today are informed, patient, and sensitive to value. Homes that miss the mark on pricing tend to sit longer and lose momentum.

Preparation, presentation, and realistic pricing continue to make a significant difference.

Why Prices Remain Softer Year Over Year

Despite improving sales activity, buyers still hold negotiating power in many parts of the market due to the amount of available inventory.

That said, some of the monthly data points suggest the pace of price declines may be slowing. Seasonally adjusted pricing edged slightly higher month over month in April, while the MLS® HPI benchmark remained relatively flat.

It’s still too early to call this a major shift, but it does suggest the market may be stabilizing after a softer period.

The Bigger Picture

There also continues to be a meaningful amount of pent-up demand across the GTA. Many buyers are still waiting for greater economic clarity, particularly around interest rates, trade uncertainty, and the broader economy.

As confidence improves, we could see activity continue to gradually strengthen. But for now, the market still feels more balanced than overheated.

TRREB also recently released its new housing policy report, Removing Roadblocks, focused on reducing regulatory barriers and improving housing supply across Ontario — an issue that remains central to long-term affordability in the region.

Final Thoughts

The spring market has become more active compared to earlier this year, but conditions remain mixed depending on property type, price point, and neighbourhood.

For buyers, there are still opportunities and negotiating leverage in many areas. For sellers, success continues to come down to pricing appropriately and presenting the home well.

As always, real estate is hyper-local, and broad GTA headlines rarely tell the full story. Understanding what’s happening specifically in your segment of the market matters far more than focusing on one headline number.

Have questions about buying or selling in the current market? Reach out—I'd be glad to walk you through what the numbers mean for your specific situation.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) just announced they are holding the overnight rate at 2.25%.

While many were hoping for a cut to kickstart the spring market, this "hold" tells a much deeper story about where we are—and where we’re going. As we navigate a world of global volatility and shifting trade policies, here is what you actually need to know if you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest in the GTA right now.

Reading Between the Lines: The "Why" Behind the Hold

The Bank’s decision wasn’t made in a vacuum. We are currently seeing two worlds colliding:

1. Global Turbulence: The conflict in the Middle East has sent energy prices climbing, pushing our March CPI inflation up to 2.4%.

2. Domestic Reality: Here at home, the labor market is feeling a bit "soft," and housing activity took a breather in late 2025 due to ongoing affordability hurdles and economic uncertainty.

The Expert’s Insight: The Bank is essentially "looking through" the temporary spike in gas prices caused by international conflict. They see core inflation easing and staying steady near that 2% sweet spot. By holding steady at 2.25%, they are signaling that while they aren't ready to pivot just yet, they aren't panicking about the recent bump in inflation either.

What This Means for GTA Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers

The "wait and see" approach of the Bank of Canada has kept many buyers on the sidelines, which has actually created a unique pocket of opportunity. With the rate held steady, mortgage lenders have a bit more predictability.

• Inventory is moving, but not at "frenzy" speeds yet. This gives you the luxury of time that we haven't seen in the Toronto market for years.

With inflation expected to return to the 2% target early next year, the current 2.25% policy rate might be the "new normal" for a while. Don't wait for a "bottom" that may have already passed.

For Sellers

A rate hold is better than a rate hike. It brings a sense of calm to the market.

• When the BoC stops hiking, buyers feel more confident in their long-term carrying costs.

• We expect growth to resume through 2026. If you’ve been holding off on listing your home, the narrative is shifting from "economic contraction" to "gradual absorption of supply."

The Road Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

The Bank projects the global economy to grow by about 3% over the next few years, and Canada’s GDP is expected to follow a similar upward trajectory (1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.7% by 2028).

The Bottom Line? Canada is a net exporter of oil. While higher gas prices hurt at the pump, they actually boost our national income. This provides a "cushion" for our economy that many other countries don't have.

The Toronto real estate market has always been resilient. Whether it’s shifting trade policies or global energy spikes, the demand for quality housing in the GTA remains the constant. Today’s announcement is a signal of cautious stability.

Thinking of making a move? Whether you’re curious about how this affects your pre-approval or you want a fresh valuation on your home in this "held rate" environment, let’s chat. The best moves are made with data, not guesswork.

As we move further into the spring market, the Greater Toronto Area housing market is beginning to show signs of tightening—something I’ve been watching closely over the past few months.

March brought a subtle but important shift. Sales activity increased compared to last year, while new listings declined in a meaningful way. At the same time, selling prices remained lower year over year, which continues to support affordability for buyers—for now.

From my experience working through different market cycles, this type of transition often creates some of the best opportunities—if you understand how to approach it.

📊 March 2026 Market Snapshot

Home sales reached 5,039, up 1.7% compared to March last year.

New listings came in at 14,442, down 16.7% year over year.

The average selling price was $1,017,796, down 6.7%.

The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark declined by 7.4%.

Compared to February, both sales and listings increased, with sales rising at a slightly stronger pace. This is an early signal that market conditions are tightening.

What I Am Seeing From Buyers

Buyers are still in a favourable position, but that window is starting to narrow.

With prices down compared to last year, affordability has improved, bringing more buyers back into the market. At the same time, fewer new listings mean less choice.

In real terms, this means buyers still have room to negotiate and can find solid value. However, if this trend continues, we can expect more competition.

If you’ve been waiting for the right time, this is one of those moments where the numbers and timing are starting to align.

A Strategic Window for Sellers

For sellers, this is far from a hot market—but it’s also far from slow.

With new listings down significantly, there are fewer competing units available to buyers. This creates an opportunity for well-prepared homes to stand out and attract serious interest.

That said, buyers today are informed and cautious. Pricing and presentation matter more than ever.

What I am advising my clients is simple: price according to today’s market, not last year. Invest in presentation. Be thoughtful about timing as conditions continue to tighten.

With the right strategy, strong results are still very achievable.

Why Prices Remain Lower Than Last Year

Even with improving sales activity, prices are still below March 2025 levels. The main reason is that buyers have continued to hold negotiating power across most property types.

That said, we are starting to see signs of stability. Month-over-month pricing has remained relatively flat, demand is gradually improving, and supply is trending lower.

In my experience, this combination is often an early sign that prices are beginning to level out.

The Ongoing Supply Challenge

One of the biggest concerns in the GTA continues to be housing supply—not just today, but looking ahead.

There is growing pressure on the supply pipeline, and this could become more noticeable in the coming years. Recent government measures aimed at reducing development costs are a step in the right direction and should help support new construction.

There is also a strong push toward what is often called “missing middle” housing. This includes property types such as townhomes and low-rise multi-unit buildings that fall between condos and detached homes.

From a long-term perspective, this is essential for a more balanced and sustainable market.

Outlook for the Months Ahead

Looking ahead, several factors will shape the direction of the market. These include consumer confidence, economic conditions, and continued support for housing development.

If current trends continue—with fewer listings and gradually increasing demand—we can expect prices to stabilize. Buyer competition may also increase as we move further into the year.

After many years in this business, one thing remains consistent: those who have a strategy in place and take a long-term outlook are the ones who benefit most.

If you are thinking about buying, selling, or investing, this is the time to start planning your next move.

The Bank of Canada has announced that it is holding its key interest rate at 2.25%, a move that reflects a balancing act between cooling inflation and growing economic uncertainty. For anyone searching for the latest Bank of Canada interest rates 2026 or current interest rates in Canada, this update signals a more cautious approach as the economy continues to adjust.

Inflation in Canada has slowed to 1.8%, getting close to the Bank’s 2% target, which reduces the need for further rate hikes. However, economic growth has weakened, with recent data showing a slight contraction and a softer labour market, including rising unemployment. At the same time, global factors—such as rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions—are creating uncertainty and could push inflation higher again. This makes the outlook for interest rate forecast Canada less predictable in the months ahead.

For the GTA housing market 2026, this rate hold provides some short-term stability but doesn’t remove all challenges. Homebuyers are seeing more consistency in borrowing costs, especially for variable rates, but affordability remains a key concern. For sellers, buyer activity is still cautious, meaning homes may take longer to sell and pricing correctly is more important than ever. This has created a “split market,” where some properties attract strong demand while others—particularly condos—face more competition and price pressure.

Overall, this latest update on mortgage rates Canada and Toronto real estate update shows that the market is no longer moving in one direction. Whether you’re buying a home in Toronto in 2026 or planning to sell, understanding today’s interest rate environment is key to making smarter real estate decisions.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market showed signs of tightening in February 2026, according to the latest report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. While home sales were slightly lower compared to the same time last year, new listings declined at a much faster rate, resulting in tighter market conditions.

For buyers, sellers, and investors across the GTA, this shift signals an important trend: housing inventory is shrinking faster than buyer demand. If this continues through the spring market, competition among buyers could increase and help stabilize home prices.

GTA Home Sales in February 2026

In February 2026, 3,868 homes were sold through the MLS® System, representing a 6.3% decrease compared to February 2025.

According to Daniel Steinfeld, many prospective buyers are currently taking a cautious approach.

Many buyers appear to be waiting for home prices to level off before making a purchase decision. This explains the slight decline in transactions compared to last year.

However, this does not mean demand has disappeared. Instead, many potential buyers are temporarily sitting on the sidelines while monitoring market conditions.

New Listings Declined Significantly

One of the most notable trends in the February report was the sharp drop in new listings entering the market.

A total of 10,705 new listings were added to the MLS® System, which is 17.7% lower than February 2025.

This means that housing supply is tightening more quickly than buyer demand is declining.

Recent polling conducted by Ipsos indicates that many homeowners are delaying their plans to list their properties in 2026, contributing to the lower inventory levels.

If this trend continues during the upcoming spring market — traditionally the busiest season for real estate in the GTA — buyers may face increased competition for available homes.

GTA Home Prices in February 2026

Home prices in the GTA also saw some adjustments compared to last year.

The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark price declined by 7.9% year-over-year.

Meanwhile, the average selling price across the GTA reached $1,008,968, representing a 7.1% decrease compared to February 2025.

While prices have softened slightly, limited inventory could help stabilize prices if buyer demand strengthens later in the year.

For buyers, this may present a window of opportunity before market activity picks up again.

Pent-Up Demand Could Support Future Sales

Despite the current slowdown in transactions, demand for homeownership in the GTA remains strong.

According to Jason Mercer, there are more than 100,000 potential buyers currently waiting to enter the market.

These buyers are largely waiting for:

• Home prices to stabilize

• Greater economic certainty

• Positive developments in trade and economic conditions

Once these factors improve, pent-up demand could quickly translate into stronger home sales, particularly in the second half of 2026.

The “Missing Middle” Housing Challenge

Beyond short-term market changes, industry leaders continue to emphasize the need to address the region’s housing supply challenges.

John DiMichele has highlighted the importance of increasing “missing middle” housing options across the GTA.

This refers to housing types that fall between condominium apartments and detached houses, such as:

• Townhomes

• Duplexes

• Low-rise multi-unit homes

Expanding these housing options could help improve affordability and provide more choices for buyers in the GTA housing market.

GTA Real Estate Market Outlook for 2026

The February data suggests that the GTA housing market is entering a transitional phase.

While sales and prices were slightly lower compared to last year, the significant drop in new listings may tighten supply and support prices moving forward.

If buyer confidence improves and more of the 100,000 waiting buyers re-enter the market, the GTA could see stronger home sales activity later in 2026 and into 2027.

The February 2026 GTA housing market report shows a market adjusting to evolving conditions. Sales were down 6.3% year-over-year, but the 17.7% drop in new listings suggests that supply is tightening faster than demand.

With more than 100,000 buyers waiting on the sidelines, limited inventory could eventually lead to increased competition and stronger home sales in the months ahead.

As the year progresses, the balance between supply, demand, and economic confidence will continue to shape the future of the Greater Toronto Area housing market.

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The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market opened 2026 at a measured pace. January activity reflected a combination of early‑year seasonality and continued buyer caution, resulting in lower sales volumes and softer pricing compared to last year. While the headlines may suggest slowdown, the underlying story is more nuanced — one of adjustment, improving balance, and emerging opportunity.

This update combines January 2026 market statistics with broader insights from the 2026 TRREB Market Outlook & Year in Review, offering context on where the market stands today and what may lie ahead.

January 2026 GTA Market Snapshot

January’s numbers highlight a market that is resetting rather than retreating.

• Average Home Price: $973,289 (down 6.5% year‑over‑year)

• Home Sales: 3,082 transactions (down 19.3% year‑over‑year)

• New Listings: 10,774 (down 13.3% year‑over‑year)

• MLS® HPI Benchmark: down approximately 8% year‑over‑year

Sales activity slowed more sharply than new listings, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainty. However, pricing adjustments have been gradual rather than abrupt, signalling a market that is stabilizing rather than under stress.

What’s Driving the Market Right Now

1. Buyer Caution Remains a Key Theme

Entering 2026, many buyers continue to take a wait‑and‑see approach. Concerns around job security, cost of living, and broader economic conditions have tempered urgency — particularly in higher‑priced segments of the market. This has resulted in longer decision cycles and fewer competitive bidding situations.

2. Affordability Has Improved, But Confidence Lags

One of the most notable shifts coming out of 2025 was improving affordability, driven by price adjustments and more stable borrowing conditions. While this has meaningfully improved purchasing power, confidence has not yet fully returned. As history shows, affordability improvements often lead demand — but with a delay.

3. Inventory Is Rebalancing

Although new listings were lower year‑over‑year in January, inventory levels remain more balanced compared to recent peak years. Sellers are facing a more discerning buyer pool, leading to more realistic pricing strategies and renewed importance of preparation, presentation, and positioning.

Insights from the 2026 TRREB Market Outlook

The 2026 TRREB Market Outlook & Year in Review reinforces several important themes shaping the year ahead:

• A Gradual Recovery, Not a Rapid Rebound: Market improvement is expected to be incremental, tied closely to economic stability and employment confidence.

• Pent‑Up Demand Is Building: Many households delayed moves in 2024 and 2025. Once confidence improves, this demand is expected to re‑enter the market.

• Condos and Entry‑Level Homes Remain Sensitive: These segments continue to feel affordability pressures but may benefit most quickly as conditions stabilize.

• Commercial and Investment Activity Remains Selective: Investors are focused on fundamentals — cash flow, location quality, and long‑term viability — rather than short‑term appreciation.

Overall, TRREB’s outlook points toward a more balanced market environment in 2026, with healthier negotiating conditions and fewer extremes on either side.

What This Means for Buyers in 2026

For buyers, today’s market offers conditions that haven’t been available in years:

• More choice and less competition

• Greater leverage during negotiations

• Fewer pressure‑driven decisions

Prepared buyers who understand neighbourhood‑level pricing and act strategically are well‑positioned to benefit as the market continues to normalize.

What This Means for Sellers

Sellers in 2026 must adjust expectations and strategies:

• Accurate pricing is critical

• Presentation and marketing matter more than ever

• Homes that are well‑positioned continue to sell, even in slower conditions

While the market no longer rewards optimism‑based pricing, it does reward clarity, preparation, and professional guidance.

Looking Ahead: A Market Defined by Balance

January 2026 reinforces a key message: the GTA housing market is not in decline — it is recalibrating. With improved affordability, evolving inventory levels, and pent‑up demand waiting on the sidelines, the foundation for gradual recovery is forming.

As always, real estate outcomes remain highly localized. Understanding how these broader trends translate at the neighbourhood and property‑type level will be essential for anyone considering a move in 2026.

If you’re quietly watching the market or planning ahead this year, staying informed — not reactive — will be your biggest advantage.