If you’ve been waiting for clarity on interest rates before making a real estate move in the Greater Toronto Area, the Bank of Canada’s latest decision offers some reassurance—and a few important signals to watch closely.

The Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting, confirming that rates remain at a level it believes is appropriate to keep inflation near its 2% target. While the overall economic outlook hasn’t changed significantly since late 2025, growing uncertainty—particularly around U.S. trade policy—could influence where rates go next.

So what does this mean if you’re buying, selling, or investing in GTA real estate in 2026? Let’s break it down.

Interest Rates Are Stable—for Now

For homeowners and buyers across Toronto, the Bank’s decision signals continued rate stability in the near term.

Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that while inflation is cooling and domestic spending is improving, economic uncertainty remains elevated. As a result, the Bank is comfortable keeping rates where they are—but is ready to respond if conditions shift.

If you’re planning to buy or refinance, today’s rate environment offers predictability that we haven’t seen in years.

Trade Uncertainty Could Shape the Housing Market

One of the biggest risks flagged by the Bank of Canada is the upcoming CUSMA (Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement) review. Ongoing U.S. tariffs and unpredictable trade policy are weighing on Canadian exports and business confidence.

Why does this matter for real estate?

• Slower economic growth can reduce buyer confidence

• Businesses may delay expansion or hiring

• Investors tend to become more selective

However, history shows that GTA real estate remains resilient, especially in desirable neighborhoods with strong fundamentals, transit access, and redevelopment potential.

GTA Housing Market Outlook for 2026

The Bank of Canada is forecasting modest GDP growth:

• 1.1% in 2026

• 1.5% in 2027

While this suggests slower overall economic momentum, it also reinforces why interest rate cuts are more likely than hikes if conditions soften further. Many economists now believe that if rates move at all, they will move downward—not up.

For real estate buyers, this could mean:

• Improved affordability later in the year

• More confidence entering the spring and fall markets

• Less pressure to “rush” before sudden rate increases

For sellers, it highlights the importance of pricing correctly and marketing strategically in a more balanced market.

Employment, Inflation & Buyer Confidence

Employment has improved slightly, but Canada’s unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8%, and many businesses are still cautious about hiring. At the same time, inflation is stabilizing close to the Bank’s 2% target.

In practical terms:

• Buyers are more selective and value-conscious

• Well-priced, move-in-ready homes continue to sell

• Luxury and investment properties need strong positioning and storytelling

This is no longer a “spray and pray” market—strategy matters more than ever.

What This Means If You’re Buying in the GTA

If you’re a buyer in the Greater Toronto Area:

• Stable rates provide planning confidence

• Inventory opportunities are improving

• Negotiation power is stronger than in past peak markets

This is an excellent time to focus on long-term value, whether that’s a family home, a rental property, or a redevelopment opportunity.

What This Means If You’re Selling in the GTA

If you’re thinking of selling:

• Buyers are active—but cautious

• Pricing, presentation, and timing are critical

• Homes with clear value propositions outperform

Sellers who align with current market realities are still achieving excellent results—especially in high-demand GTA neighborhoods.

A Balanced Market Favors Smart Decisions

The Bank of Canada’s rate hold confirms what many GTA real estate professionals are already seeing: a more stable, balanced market taking shape.

While trade risks and economic uncertainty remain, interest rates are stable, inflation is under control, and modest growth is expected through 2027. For buyers and sellers alike, success in 2026 will come down to informed decision-making and expert guidance.

If you’re considering a move in the Greater Toronto Area this year—whether buying, selling, or investing—having a clear strategy has never been more important.

Thinking about your next real estate move in the GTA? Let’s talk about how today’s interest rate environment can work in your favour.